Oyster restoration: acknowledgement of uncertainty and lessons learned for future decision-making

Oyster restoration is a primary goal of many agencies in the Gulf of Mexico region. Objectives for this study were to use existing published literature to inform oyster restoration practitioners regarding uncertainties that may impact restoration decisions. Specific objectives were: 1) Conduct a literature search to determine if recommended core parameters are being monitored to reduce uncertainty; Develop a draft conceptual ecological model (CEM) for eastern oyster in the Gulf of Mexico region to illustrate uncertainties among linkages; and 3) Demonstrate how the draft CEM could be used as an influence diagram to develop an alpha-level version of a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). Primary findings were that many core parameters are not monitored during post-restoration phases making future decision-making more difficult. The development of the draft CEM and alpha-level BBN may help stakeholders determine key areas of uncertainty to focus monitoring efforts to inform future adaptive management frameworks.