The Aleutian tern, a USFWS and ADF&G “Species of Conservation Concern/Species of Conservation Need”, is Alaska's most imperiled seabird, having undergone apparent population declines at known colonies of more than 95% in recent decades. A 2015 analysis highlighted the apparent rapid decline and suggested the Alaska breeding population to be only ~5000 birds. The analysis identified several challenges for monitoring population trends of Aleutian terns, including: lack of a formal monitoring effort, substantial uncertainties related to census methods, and an inability to assess if birds moved from declining colonies to as-of-yet unknown colonies.
Since 2016, the Aleutian Tern Working Group, including USFWS staff from Migratory Bird Management, Refuges, and Ecological Services, has worked on refining colony census methods and developing a statewide Aleutian tern colony census plan. Building on years of focused work on colony census methods and designing a statistically rigorous statewide census design, this project will provide a defensible population assessment of the entire North American population of Aleutian terns and deliver information required for a Species Status Assessment, anticipating the species may be petitioned for protection under the Endangered Species Act.