The hunting season proposals were developed after consultation with the four flyway councils, made up of State representatives, following extensive review of habitat and population information collected by aerial surveys of breeding grounds throughout North America.
Much of the prairies and parklands of the northern U.S. and Canada experienced higher than normal temperatures and little precipitation throughout the fall and winter. As a result, biologists found dry conditions and fewer ponds than last years record number in the traditional survey area. Habitat conditions were poor in much of Alberta, parts of Montana and western Saskatchewan, and only fair to good in many other areas. Only parts of northern Manitoba and the Dakotas had excellent habitat conditions.
The estimated number of May ponds in prairie Canada and portions of the north central U.S., critical to the reproductive success of waterfowl, fell 41 percent from 1999 levels, to a level 20 percent below the long-term average. The number of total breeding ducks in the traditional survey area was estimated at 41.8 million birds, a number statistically similar to last years record estimate of 43.4 million birds but 27 percent above the historic average.
In late May and throughout June, substantial rainfall recharged many ponds in the prairie-parkland region and improved habitat conditions significantly in many important areas that were dry only a few weeks earlier. While these rains benefitted late-nesting waterfowl and improved brood survival, it was apparent to survey crews in July that production from some of these areas was less than expected.
Results of the spring and summer surveys suggest that the total fall flight index of ducks from the traditional survey area will be approximately 90 million ducks, smaller than the record forecast of around 100 million ducks reported last year. The Service estimates a fall flight index of 11.3 million mallards for 2000 from the mid-continent region, 14 percent lower than last years estimate.
This is the last year that the Service expects to publish a total duck fall flight index, though it will continue to use an estimate for the mid-continent mallard flight. The fall total duck flight index served as a useful tool for more than 30 years, and was intended to give hunters an idea of what to expect in the upcoming hunting season from the survey area. However, with the recent expansion of waterfowl surveys, particularly into eastern breeding areas where duck production information is currently not available, the utility of this index has been called into question.
"We simply know more about ducks than we did 30 years ago, and are doing a better job of surveying the places they breed. We are working on other alternatives that provide hunters with a more reliable indication of duck abundance in the fall," said Service Director Jamie Rappaport Clark, explaining the Services decision to phase out the fall flight index.
Blue-winged teal and green-winged teal numbers reached record highs this year, while slight declines were observed for other surveyed species. American wigeon populations fell 6 percent from last years surveys, and northern shovelers were down 9 percent.
The breeding population of canvasbacks remained essentially unchanged at about 700,000, while redhead populations fell 5 percent to 926,000. The continental scaup population, which includes both greater and lesser scaup, declined 9 percent from last years increase, and remains 25 percent below its historic average. Northern pintail populations also fell slightly and remain 33 percent below their long-term average.
According to preliminary estimates of waterfowl harvest and hunter activity gathered during the 1999-2000 season through the National Waterfowl Harvest Survey, hunters harvested nearly 15.8 million ducks last season, a 7 percent decrease from the previous season. Persons buying duck stamps for hunting averaged nearly 9 days afield and harvested an average of nearly 10 ducks, down 8 percent from the previous seasons level.
Despite variable nesting conditions in many arctic and subarctic areas, the size of most fall flights for goose and swan populations is expected to be similar to or above those of last year. Of the 24 breeding populations for which data spanning at least 10 years are available - including various populations of Canada geese, snow geese, white-fronted geese, brant, emperor geese and tundra swans - 13 have generally increased over that period, while one population has declined and 10 remained stable. Population estimates for geese are derived primarily from multiple surveys conducted in winter and fall by Federal, State and Provincial biologists, supplemented by spring survey data provided by various government agencies and universities. Unlike the coordinated annual spring surveys for ducks, these surveys do not enable the Service to make statistically reliable total population estimates for most goose species.
Highlights of the proposed late-season frameworks follow:
Atlantic Flyway- (Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia, and West Virginia)
