Predicting Effects of Climate Change on Bird Distributions Across Scales and Ecosystems: How Species-based Modeling can Inform Management and Decision Making
Desription of Presentation:
Species distribution modeling (SDM) has become an important tool for projecting climate-related shifts in species geographic distributions and community composition. Most of these efforts have focused on broad continental scales that are not necessarily relevant for land managers, however. This presentation will provide examples of SDMs at statewide (California) and local (San Francisco Bay) scales, and discuss appropriate uses for managers, given various types of uncertainty.
Presenter Name & Contact Info:
Diana Stralberg PRBO Conservation Science, 3820 Cypress Dr. #11, Petaluma, CA 95954, firstname.lastname@example.org
Diana Stralberg has been with PRBO Conservation Science since September 2000. She holds an M.S. in Resource Ecology and Management from the University of Michigan, and a B.S. in Mathematics/Applied Science from UCLA. Diana's primary areas of expertise include landscape ecology, spatial analysis, statistical modeling, and the intersections of these disciplines. Her recent research pursuits have focused on modeling avian distributional responses to climate, vegetation, and land use patterns, at scales ranging from individual sites to the western U.S. Her major ongoing projects include modeling the potential effects of climate change on California terrestrial bird distributions, as well as San Francisco Bay tidal marsh communities; and developing spatial models and conservation priorities for California migratory waterbirds (the latter in cooperation with the Nature Conservancy).
She has developed habitat-based distribution models for the Northern Spotted Owl and passerine birds within California's central coast, and for Central Valley and foothill riparian and oak woodland species. Diana has also been involved in the study of San Francisco Bay wetland ecosystems for over eight years, with an emphasis on avian responses to tidal marsh restoration.
Her San Francisco Bay wetlands work includes the analysis of optimal landscape configurations for salt pond restoration, the analysis of landscape influences on the conservation of heron and egret colonies, a spatial model of invasive Spartina spread and potential shorebird habitat loss, and fine-scale spatial models of avian distributions within tidal marshes.
- PRBO distribution models and mapping tool
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