Climate Change in the Pacific Region
Pacific Region
 

Climate Change Nature Resources and Coastal Management

Presentation Title:
Predicting Effects of Climate Change on Bird Distributions Across Scales and Ecosystems: How Species-based Modeling can Inform Management and Decision Making

Desription of Presentation:
Species distribution modeling (SDM) has become an important tool for projecting climate-related shifts in species geographic distributions and community composition. Most of these efforts have focused on broad continental scales that are not necessarily relevant for land managers, however. This presentation will provide examples of SDMs at statewide (California) and local (San Francisco Bay) scales, and discuss appropriate uses for managers, given various types of uncertainty.

Presenter Name & Contact Info:
Diana Stralberg PRBO Conservation Science, 3820 Cypress Dr. #11, Petaluma, CA 95954, dstralberg@prbo.org

Presenter's Biography:
Diana Stralberg has been with PRBO Conservation Science since September 2000. She holds an M.S. in Resource Ecology and Management from the University of Michigan, and a B.S. in Mathematics/Applied Science from UCLA. Diana's primary areas of expertise include landscape ecology, spatial analysis, statistical modeling, and the intersections of these disciplines. Her recent research pursuits have focused on modeling avian distributional responses to climate, vegetation, and land use patterns, at scales ranging from individual sites to the western U.S. Her major ongoing projects include modeling the potential effects of climate change on California terrestrial bird distributions, as well as San Francisco Bay tidal marsh communities; and developing spatial models and conservation priorities for California migratory waterbirds (the latter in cooperation with the Nature Conservancy). She has developed habitat-based distribution models for the Northern Spotted Owl and passerine birds within California's central coast, and for Central Valley and foothill riparian and oak woodland species. Diana has also been involved in the study of San Francisco Bay wetland ecosystems for over eight years, with an emphasis on avian responses to tidal marsh restoration. Her San Francisco Bay wetlands work includes the analysis of optimal landscape configurations for salt pond restoration, the analysis of landscape influences on the conservation of heron and egret colonies, a spatial model of invasive Spartina spread and potential shorebird habitat loss, and fine-scale spatial models of avian distributions within tidal marshes.

Recommended Reading:

Download the Presentation: PDF File PowerPoint File 37.50 MB

 
Last updated: February 4, 2009


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id 41
Title Predicting Effects of Climate Change on Bird Distributions Across Scales and Ecosystems: How Species-based Modeling can Inform Management and Decision Making
Presentation_description Species distribution modeling (SDM) has become an important tool for projecting climate-related shifts in species geographic distributions and community composition. Most of these efforts have focused on broad continental scales that are not necessarily relevant for land managers, however. This presentation will provide examples of SDMs at statewide (California) and local (San Francisco Bay) scales, and discuss appropriate uses for managers, given various types of uncertainty.
name Diana Stralberg
contact_info PRBO Conservation Science, 3820 Cypress Dr. #11, Petaluma, CA 95954, dstralberg@prbo.org
biography Diana Stralberg has been with PRBO Conservation Science since September 2000. She holds an M.S. in Resource Ecology and Management from the University of Michigan, and a B.S. in Mathematics/Applied Science from UCLA. Diana's primary areas of expertise include landscape ecology, spatial analysis, statistical modeling, and the intersections of these disciplines. Her recent research pursuits have focused on modeling avian distributional responses to climate, vegetation, and land use patterns, at scales ranging from individual sites to the western U.S. Her major ongoing projects include modeling the potential effects of climate change on California terrestrial bird distributions, as well as San Francisco Bay tidal marsh communities; and developing spatial models and conservation priorities for California migratory waterbirds (the latter in cooperation with the Nature Conservancy). She has developed habitat-based distribution models for the Northern Spotted Owl and passerine birds within California's central coast, and for Central Valley and foothill riparian and oak woodland species. Diana has also been involved in the study of San Francisco Bay wetland ecosystems for over eight years, with an emphasis on avian responses to tidal marsh restoration. Her San Francisco Bay wetlands work includes the analysis of optimal landscape configurations for salt pond restoration, the analysis of landscape influences on the conservation of heron and egret colonies, a spatial model of invasive Spartina spread and potential shorebird habitat loss, and fine-scale spatial models of avian distributions within tidal marshes.
rec_readings PRBO distribution models and mapping tool
RF http://data.prbo.org/cadc2/index.php?page=climate-change-distribution
rec_readings2 Loarie, S. R., B. E. Carter, K. Hayhoe, S. McMahon, R. Moe, C. A. Knight and D. D. Ackerly. 2008. Climate Change and the Future of California's Endemic Flora. PLoS ONE 3:e2502
RF2 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0002502
rec_readings3 Kueppers, L. M., M. A. Snyder, L. C. Sloan, E. S. Zavaleta and B. Fulfrost. 2005. Modeled regional climate change and California endemic oak ranges. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 102:16281-16286
RF3 http://www.pnas.org/content/102/45/16281.abstract
rec_readings4 Bakkenes, M., Alkemade, J.R.M., Ihle, F., Leemans, R., Latour, J.B., 2002. Assessing effects of forecasted climate change on the diversity and distribution of European higher plants for 2050. Global Change Biology 8, 390-407
RF4
rec_readings5 Huntley, B., Collingham, Y.C., Willis, S.G., Green, R.E., 2008. Potential Impacts of Climatic Change on European Breeding Birds. PLoS ONE 3, e1439
RF5
rec_readings6 Iverson, L.R., Schwartz, M.W., Prasad, A.M., 2004. How fast and far might tree species migrate in the eastern United States due to climate change? Glob Ecol Biogeogr 13, 209-219
RF6
rec_readings7 Pearson, R.G., Dawson, T.P., 2003. Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful? Glob Ecol Biogeogr 12, 361-371
RF7
rec_readings8 Thomas, C.D., Cameron, A., Green, R.E., Bakkenes, M., Beaumont, L.J., Collingham, Y.C., Erasmus, B.F.N., de Siqueira, M.F., Grainger, A., Hannah, L., Hughes, L., Huntley, B., van Jaarsveld, A.S., Midgley, G.F., Miles, L., Ortega-Huerta, M.A., Townsend Peterson, A., Phillips, O.L., Williams, S.E., 2004. Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 427, 145.
RF8
rec_readings9
RF9
rec_readings10
RF10
Presentation sessionf/Stralberg USFWS Workshop Jan 2009 _ For web without slide 20.ppt