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Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest

In the Pacific Northwest, we are collaborating with climate researchers at the University of Washington’s Climate Impacts Group (CIG), the U.S. Geological Survey, the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) and many others to develop an understanding of climate change effects in the Pacific Northwest, and how to manage fish and wildlife resources in light of these affects.
 
The Climate Impacts Group (CIG) is an interdisciplinary research group studying the impacts of natural climate variability and global climate change in the Pacific Northwest. the following information is summarized from CIG's published work.CIG researchers have found that the Pacific Northwest has warmed about 1.0 ºC (or 1.8 ºF) since 1900, or about 50% more than the global average warming over the same period. The warming rate for the Pacific Northwest over the next century is projected by CIG to be in the range of 0.1-0.6° C/decade (or 0.2-1.1ºF/decade). Projected precipitation changes for the region are unlikely to be distinguishable from natural variability until late in the 21st century but due to temperature changes, current trends of more winter rain and less snowfall are expected to continue at low and mid elevations. Most models project long-term increases in winter precipitation and decreases in summer precipitation.

The changes in temperature and precipitation will continue to decrease snow pack, and will likely affect stream flow and water quality throughout the region. For example, according to the University of Washington’s Climate Impact Group, the decline of the region's snowpack is strongest at low and middle elevations, and can be explained by observed increases in temperature and declines in precipitation. Low elevation declines at individual stations in the Washington and Oregon Cascades for example, are frequently 40% or more. The linear decline in April 1 snow water equivalent for the Washington Cascades is roughly –15% to –35% (mostly around –25%) for a variety of starting points between 1916 and 1970 and ending in 2006

Figure 1: Pacific Northwest projections show a larger change in average temperatures than precipitation.  Climate Impacts Group, 2008.

Changes already have been observed in many species’ ranges, consistent with changes in climate. For the northern hemisphere, this includes the movement of species toward the North Pole and/or to higher elevations. Habitat fragmentation may inhibit this adjustment of plants and wildlife.

Wildfire

Virtually all future climate scenarios predict increases in wildfire in western North America, especially east of the Cascades. Fire frequency and intensity have already increased in the past 50 years, and most notably the past 15 years in the shrub steppe and forested regions of the West. USFS and CIG researchers have linked these trends to climate changes. Drought and hotter temperatures have also led to an increase in outbreaks of insects, such as the mountain pine beetle.

Coastal and Marine Environments

In addition to temperature and rainfall changes, researchers and others have observed rising sea levels and changes to ocean conditions.

In the Pacific Northwest, climate change affects the marine environment by  increasing ocean temperature, increasing the vertical stratification of the water column (reducing mixing which is important to the marine food chain), and changing the intensity and timing of coastal upwelling.

Wind-driven coastal upwelling and mixing are particularly important to productive marine ecosystems that support diverse marine life, major fisheries and seabirds. These coastal systems are highly variable in both locality and time. Natural changes can occur daily, weekly, seasonally, yearly or even every ten years. And upwelling can vary greatly due to El Niño-Southern Oscillation events which occur on average every 2 to 7 years.

Sea Level Rise

Melting of glacier ice and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets along with thermal expansion of the oceans will likely continue to increase sea level for many hundreds of years into the future. Low lying coastal areas are likely to be inundated by seawater or periodically over-washed by waves and storm surges. Coastal wetlands may become increasingly brackish as seawater inundates freshwater wetlands. New brackish and freshwater wetland areas will be created as seawater inundates low lying inland areas or as the freshwater table is pushed upward by the higher stand of seawater.

Ocean Acidification

Dissolving of carbon dioxide into ocean surface waters will continue to increase the acidity (pH) of ocean surface waters. Carbonate-based animals and plants form the foundation of our marine ecosystems. An increase in ocean acidity is likely to result in a decline in the ability of coral reefs to maintain their calcium carbonate structure. Phytoplankton that utilize calcium carbonate are also likely to decline in abundance, along with other carbonate-dependent animals such as marine snails, and carbonate-dependent plants such as red marine algae that utilize carbonate to cement together tropical coral and algal reefs. Finally, the effects of acidification on the development of carbonate-dependent marine larvae is largely unknown but of potentially great significance.

Read more at these websites:
University of Washington’s Climate Impacts Group
US Forest Service Pacific Northwest Global Change Research
The Independent Scientific Advisory Board’s Report on Climate Change Impacts on Columbia River Basin Fish and Wildlife
The Western Mountain Initiative