Sea Level Rise Planning

Projecting the Effects of Sea-Level Rise on Coastal Habitats of the National Wildlife Refuge System as of February 13, 2012

Introduction

The Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) is the “workhorse model” for sea-level rise planning on the Refuge System. First developed in 1988, SLAMM has evolved into Version 6.0, with improvement an ongoing process. The SLAMM modeler is typically a contractor, Fish and Wildlife Service employee, conservation partner, or graduate student. SLAMM modeling on the Refuge System is coordinated from the Division of Natural Resources and Conservation Planning in the Washington Office.

How SLAMM Works

The SLAMM modeler begins with a digitized habitat map of the study area (such as a refuge and its surrounding) and applies one or more sea-level rise scenarios. In Refuge System SLAMM analysis, typically several scenarios ranging from 0.4 meters to 2 meters sea-level rise by the year 2100 are used. SLAMM models the effects of inundation, erosion, overwash, saturation, and accretion under these various scenarios. The key products of SLAMM are maps and tables projecting the acreage of habitats at future points in time such as 2025, 2050, 2075, and 2100.


Refuge System SLAMM Coverage

  • Refuges with oceanic or estuarine coastline (herein, “coastal refuges”):  171
  • Refuges with refuge-specific SLAMM analyses:  133
  • Coastal refuges without completed SLAMM analyses:  38 [i.e., 171 – 133]
  • Coastal refuges for which SLAMM is not needed (e.g., rocky islands): 26a
  • Coastal refuges for which a first SLAMM analysis is needed:  12 [i.e., 38 – 26]
  • Coastal refuges for which SLAMM is not applicable or appropriate for the foreseeable future (e.g., Alaskan refuges lacking data): 11
  • (Initial) SLAMM analyses needed and feasible in foreseeable future:  1 [i.e., 12 – 11]
  • (Initial) SLAMM analyses in the planning/funding stage:  1
  • Initial SLAMM analyses (needed and feasible) not yet planned/funded:  0
  • “Re-SLAMM” analyses: 6.  Re-SLAMMing may occur when key data sets (such as elevation, wetlands coverage, and accretion rates) are improved or updated, when the SLAMM model is improved or updated, to take advantage of new SLAMM features such as uncertainty analysis, for exploring additional sea-level rise scenarios, and for exploring the potential effects of alternative management actions such as draining or diking.

 

Coastal Refuges with SLAMM Analyses ( links to SLAMM reports)

Atlantic Coast and Gulf of Mexico - North to South then West

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

National Wildlife Refuge

FWS Region

ST

Year Conducted

 

 

 

 

Moosehorn

5

ME

2008

Petit Manan 

5

ME

2010

Rachel Carson

5

ME

2008

Great Bay

5

NH

2009

Parker River

5

MA

2009

Monomoy

5

MA

2009

Mashpee

5

MA

2009

Nantucket

5

MA

2009

Sachuest Point

5

RI

2009

John H. Chafee

5

RI

2009

Trustom Pond

5

RI

2009

Ninigret

5

RI

2009

Nomans Land Island

5

MA

2009

Block Island

5

RI

2009

Stewart B. McKinney

5

CT

2009

Elizabeth A. Morton

5

NY

2008

Amagansett

5

NY

 2009

Conscience Point

5

NY

 2009

Oyster Bay

5

NY

 2009

Target Rock

5

NY

2009

Wertheim

5

NY

2008

Seatuck

5

NY

2009

Lido Beach WMA

5

NY

2009

Edwin B. Forsythe

5

NJ

2008

John Heinz

5

PA

2009

Supawna Meadows

5

NJ

2009

Bombay Hook

5

DE

2010

Cape May

5

NJ

2011
2009

Prime Hook

5

DE

2009

Eastern Neck

5

MD

2009

Blackwater

5

MD

2009

Martin

5

MD

2009

Mason Neck

5

VA

2010

Occoquan Bay

5

VA

2010

Featherstone

5

VA

2010

Chincoteague

5

VA

2009

Rappahanock River Valley

5

VA

2009

Wallops Island

5

VA

2009

Presquile 

5

VA

2009

James River 

5

VA

2010

Eastern Shore of Virginia

5

VA

2009

Plum Tree Island

5

VA

2009

Fisherman Island

5

VA

2009

Nansemond

5

VA

2009

Back Bay

5

VA

2011

Mackay Island

4

NC

2010

Currituck

4

NC

2010

Alligator River

4

NC

2008

Pea Island

4

NC

2008

Swanquarter

4

NC

2007

Cedar Island

4

NC

2010

Waccamaw

4

SC

2008

Cape Romain

4

SC

2008

ACE Basin

4

SC

2008

Pinckney Island

4

SC

2008

Tybee

4

SC

2012
2008

Savannah 

4

GA

2008

Wassaw

4

GA

2008

Harris Neck

4

GA

2011
2008

Blackbeard Island

4

GA

2012
2008

Wolf Island

4

GA

2012
2008

Merritt Island

4

FL

2011
2008

Archie Carr

4

FL

2010

Pelican Island

4

FL

2010

Hobe Sound

4

FL

2010

Crocodile Lake

4

FL

2010

Great White Heron

4

FL

2011

National Key Deer Refuge

4

FL

2008 

Key West

4

FL

2011

Ten Thousand Islands

4

FL

2011

J.N. `Ding` Darling

4

FL

2011

Matlacha Pass

4

FL

 2008

Pine Island

4

FL

2011

Caloosahatchee

4

FL

 2008

Island Bay

4

FL

 2008

Passage Key

4

FL

 2008

Pinellas

4

FL

2008

Chassahowitzka

4

FL

2008

Crystal River

4

FL

2008

Cedar Keys

4

FL

2011

Lower Suwannee

4

FL

2011

St. Marks

4

FL

2008

St. Vincent

4

FL

2008

Bon Secour

4

AL

2008

Grand Bay

4

MS

2011

Mississippi Sandhill Crane 

4

MS

 2012

Breton

4

LA

2011

Delta

4

LA

2011

Bayou Sauvage

4

LA

2008

Big Branch Marsh

4

LA

2012
2008

Shell Keys

4

LA

2008

Sabine

4

LA

2008

Texas Point

2

TX

2011

McFaddin

2

TX

2011

Anahuac

2

TX

2011

Moody

2

TX

2011

Brazoria

2

TX

 

San Bernard

2

TX

2011

Big Boggy

2

TX

2011

Aransas

2

TX

2010

Laguna Atascosa

2

TX

2011

Lower Rio Grande Valley

2

TX

2011

 

 

 

 

Pacific Coast - South to North

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tijuana Slough

8

CA

2009

San Diego Bay - South Bay

8

CA

2009

San Diego Bay – Sweetwater Marsh

8

CA

2009

Seal Beach

8

CA

2008

Guadalupe-Nipomo Dunes

8

 CA

2008

Salinas River

8

CA

2008

Don Edwards San Francisco Bay

8

CA

2010

Marin Islands

8

CA

2010 

San Pablo Bay

8

CA

2010

Humboldt Bay

8

CA

2011

Bandon Marsh

1

OR

2010

Siletz Bay

1

OR

2010

Nestucca Bay

1

OR

2010

Lewis and Clark

1

WA

2011

Julia Butler Hansen

1,8

OR,WA

2011

Willapa

1

WA

2010

Grays Harbor

1

WA

2011

Dungeness

1

WA

2010

Protection Island

1

WA

2011

Nisqually

1

WA

2011

San Juan Islands

1

WA

2011

 

 

 

 

Principle Islands of Hawaii - Southeast to Northwest

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kakahai'a

1

HI

 2010

Pearl Harbor

1

HI

2010

Huleia

1

HI

 2010

Kilauea Point

1

HI

 2010

 

 

 

 

Pacific Islands - South to North

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Guam

1

 

2010

 

 

 

 

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands - Northwest to East to South to West (plus Navassa Island)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Culebra

4

PR

2007

Green Cay

4

VI

2008

Sandy Point

4

VI

2008

Vieques

4

PR

2007

Cabo Rojo 

4

PR

2008

 

Click here for SLAMM technical documentation.

For more information, contact:

Brian Czech, Conservation Biologist
U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service
National Wildlife Refuge System
4401 N. Fairfax Drive - MS 670
Arlington, VA  22203
703-358-2485
Brian_Czech@fws.gov